NEWS ANALYSIS: Why U.S. Senator Raese Would Matter
By Huntingtonnews.net Staff
Should Republican U.S. Senate candidate John Raese win over Governor Joe Manchin on November 2nd, more may be at stake than simply a shake-up of the state's Democratic political establishment.
According to Huntingtonnews.net chief political analyst Jack Ellis, Raese could be the vote that puts the Republicans over the top, potentially denying the Democrats of not one but both houses of Congress.
Currently, the U.S. Senate is comprised of 57 Democrats, 41 Republicans, and 2 Independents. To have an outright majority, the Republicans will need to win 10 seats above their current numbers to gain control of the Senate's committee chairmanship--important towards advancing their own agenda and reversing legislation unpopular with their supporters, like Obamacare and the President's stimulus bill.
"Having control of one house of Congress is nice, but to really get control of the national agenda, the Republicans would like to take over both the House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate," said Ellis. "And yes, it comes down to one vote sometimes as to whether you get the majority. The 51st vote is everything. It could determine whether America goes full-blown socialist with the Obamacare or not. That's how important these elections are this year."
But can the Republicans win ten more seats this year?
"Look, this year is messing with everyone's conventional wisdom," said Ellis. "A few weeks ago, the pundits in Washington were saying that the Republicans would make modest gains in the U.S. Senate, maybe picking up five seats tops. Now they're having to adjust that reasoning and have generally agreed that it's going to be at least seven. But with the Presidential and Congressional approval ratings continuing to sink, states like Utah, New York, and West Virginia are in play now, too."
"It's no longer impossible to imagine that John Raese could be the tenth Republican U.S. Senator needed to overtake the Senate this year," said Ellis. "That will mean more national Republican funding and perhaps some celebrity visits coming to stump for him."
"To show you the relative momentum of the two campaigns in this race right now, let me ask you: Do you really think Joe Manchin would ask President Obama to come in here and stump for him?" said Ellis. "But I wouldn't be surprised if Sarah Palin or John McCain came in for Raese. See what I mean? This is going to be an increasingly tough race for Manchin to hold on to his single digit lead. I think we'll see Raese pulling ahead by late September at this rate. That's when this thing is really going to get interesting."