Oct. 31, 2006
 
BAYHAM ON POLITICS: The DNC’s Nightmare on Claiborne Avenue
 
By Mike Bayham
 
South Louisiana (Special to HNN) -- Thanks to the adoption of the closed primary, this will likely be the last time voters will hit the polls in December to a decide congressional contests not settled on the November federal election day.
 
While it’s possible for the contest in the Louisiana Third Congressional District to head for a runoff if Democratic incumbent Charlie Melancon fails to garner a majority in the face of his Republican challenger, New Iberia State Senator Craig Romero, and two minor candidates, there is little doubt that the battle for the Second Congressional District won’t be settled until December 9th.
 
Though a Democrat, New Orleans Congressman Bill Jefferson finds himself a man without a party as he has been virtually abandoned by his national colleagues due to the federal investigation concerning allegations of his demanding bribes from a technology company interested in doing business in Nigeria.
 
The most infamous detail of the latest Louisiana political corruption drama is the $90,000 in cash found in Jefferson’s freezer, which has put a damper on the national Democrats’ ability to frame the 2006 midterm elections as a referendum against the Republicans’ “culture of corruption” in Washington, as avarice is very much a bipartisan problem.
 
Booted from the Ways and Means Committee and snubbed by former allies such as ex-US Senator John Breaux, the embattled politician finds himself fighting simultaneously for his political life and a likely forthcoming indictment.
 
Despite the bad press and diminished political influence, Jefferson continues to lead the thirteen candidate field to represent most of New Orleans and parts of Jefferson Parish on Capitol Hill and his re-election prospects are not as dim as his legal ones. Wherein lies the problem for the DNC, which does not want to endure the same embarrassment the opposition has suffered with a member of their caucus being convicted.
 
The party apparatus has lined up behind State Representative Karen Carter, a young active legislator with a pedigree in politics. The state Democratic Party has endorsed her and she has received support from Breaux, City Council President Oliver Thomas and the Times Picayune. In an effort to win over white voters, Carter, who was a vocal supporter of Lieutenant Governor Mitch Landrieu for mayor, has portrayed herself as the candidate best able to defeat Jefferson in the runoff.
 
Carter’s strategy is no doubt aimed at clipping the wings of Republican candidate Joe Lavigne, a lawyer who has consistently polled a respectable third throughout the campaign.
 
While Lavigne would normally be discounted as a hopeless cause (Jefferson soundly defeated his last GOP opponent by 58%), he has assembled a respectable campaign operation and is well-funded. Furthermore, Lavigne is helped by the fact that Jefferson has two other formidable black opponents in addition to Carter, State Senator Derrick Shepherd and former Councilman Troy Carter.
 
With many black voters from New Orleans still residing outside of the 504 area code and a lack of interest in this race in contrast to the mayoral runoff, there’s a chance that whites might comprise of half of those who vote on November 7th.
 
If Lavigne, who is also the only white candidate of standing, receives 60% of the white bloc, then his place in the runoff is assured since Jefferson is bound to receive no less than half of the black vote in the primary.
 
A runoff against Lavigne could be Jefferson’s lone saving grace in the heavily Democratic district, as a December duel with Carter would be in essence a rematch of the Nagin-Pennington mayoral runoff, with the former receiving a chunk of the black vote and a monopoly of the white vote, a segment of the electorate hardly endeared to Jefferson before the Feds found something other than Blue Bell ice cream in his fridge.
 
The district gave George W. Bush 24% in 2004 though the largely post-Katrina intact Jefferson Parish portion was more supportive to the president to the tune of 42%.
 
Though the beneficiary of white money, Carter desperately needs to stifle Lavigne to no more than a 50% share of the white vote while keeping Jefferson’s overall number below 35% and minimizing Shepherd and Carter’s totals on the westbank of Orleans and Jefferson Parishes in order to make the runoff.
 
Lavigne has the simpler task of bringing out the Republican base and has helped himself towards this goal by ceasing his unwise previous public criticism of President Bush.
 
While Jefferson’s prospects against Lavigne in a runoff are far brighter than they would be against Karen Carter, Republicans can’t help but entertain the mischievous thought of what the national Democrats would do if the November 7th congressional elections produce a 217-217 split in the House of Representatives and control hinges on Jefferson winning re-election in December.
 
Now there’s something to make Howard Dean scream.
 
The Early Call
 
Log on to theearlycall.blogspot.com starting at 8 p.m. on election night for the first projections in the Louisiana congressional races. In the September statewide elections, the winners and order of the major candidates were announced 90 minutes after the close of voting, hours before the media did so.
 
Early odds on the Second District race: Jefferson a lock to land in the runoff with Karen Carter having a 66% chance of making it and Joe Lavigne with a 33% shot.
 
Mike Bayham is a political consultant in south Louisiana and can be contacted at MikeBayham@yahoo.com.