July 25, 2006
COMMENTARY: Peril in Somalia
By Tom Proebsting
Special to HNN
Moberly, MO (HNN) -- Trouble is brewing between Somalia and Ethiopia as the
eyes of the world are on the Middle East. Ethiopian troops and trucks have
unofficially moved into the Somali towns of Baidoa and Wajid. The Ethiopian
government and the Somali interim government deny that the troops have
crossed the border because the action is likely to be interpreted as an
infraction of international law.
The Somali government, formed in 2004 in Kenya, is using Baidoa as its
government seat and it is the only town they control. Somalia’s leading
Islamist terrorist group, the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) captured the
capital city of Mogadishu on June 6. Somalia has not had a strong central
government since the fall of dictator Mohamed Siad Barre in 1991. During the
aftermath, the nation has been in anarchy with corrupt warlords ruling
various regions.
The ICU has links to al Qaeda and has taken over the southern half of
Somalia, bringing a semblance of order with it. The organization is split by
moderates who want a dialogue with the government and the extremists who
wish to impose Sharia law.
The Somali interim government, whose president is Abdullah Yusef, is
supported by the United Nations, the United States, the European Union, and
Ethiopia. The Somali rebels have reportedly been supplied weapons and
support by Eritrea and Yemen. Eritrea is a long time foe of Ethiopia. Yemen
lies across the Red Sea from Somalia.
Ethiopia sent troops into Somalia once in 1993 and again in 1996 to quash
militants attempting to establish an Islamic government. In addition to
wanting to set up a Koranic government, many of the Somali citizens wish to
establish a Greater Somalia. This is a nation consisting of all Somalis in
the region, including the eastern section of Ethiopia and the eastern area
of Kenya, both of which have heavy populations of Somalis.
Another concern which was voiced by President George W. Bush and echoed by
White House spokesman Tony Snow is that Somalia may become an al-Qaeda haven
for terrorists to plot and train. The State Department is reputed to be
working with individuals in fighting terrorism in Mogadishu and funding
pro-Western warlords. A final concern is that the two nations are
strategically located on the Horn of Africa which leads to the Red Sea
between Egypt and Saudi Arabia. The waterways must be protected. For
instance, Somali pirates must not be allowed to harass sea traffic.
The UN has imposed an arms embargo against Somalia, already in its 14th
government since 1991. However, the US backs the Alliance for the
Restoration of Peace and Counter-Terrorism which was formed this year by
Mogadishu’s main warlords.
After the Ethiopian troops entered Wajid last Saturday (July 22), there were
reports of an armed conflict between them and the rebel forces. The ICU has
threatened Jihad or a holy war against Ethiopia in the event of clashes. If
the two sides go to war, it is feared that the conflict could escalate into
a regional war in East Africa.
What is Ethiopia’s best course of action? It must succeed as it shares a
long and porous border with Somalia. Also, the interim government may
collapse and if it does, the rebels may institute Sharia law throughout
Somalia. In addition, they plan to seize areas of Ethiopia and Kenya where
the population is predominantly Somali. Finally, Somalia may become a huge
training ground for worldwide terrorism if al-Qaeda has its way.
What is best for Somalia is that one single government must exert control
over the nation. Ethiopia’s army is superior to that of the ICU. Most of the
Somali rebels are locals, not foreigners. Ethiopia must side with the Somali
warlords and defeat the ICU in a contained war. Then once a strong central
government is elected and put in place in Mogadishu, it can work with its
warlords in the most effective manner possible in keeping the peace.
The United States and others who support Ethiopia must do what they can to
give aid and supplies to the Ethiopian forces and the Somali government. The
United Nations must give its seal of approval to the actions of the
Ethiopian forces so they can rid Somalia of a potentially dangerous source
of trouble throughout the East African region and ultimately throughout the
world.
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Tom Proebsting is a writer and blogger in Missouri. Tom Proebsting, 823 N.
Ault St. Moberly, MO 65270
e-mail: truthprobe777@yahoo.com
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