July 21, 2006
COMMENTARY: Change in Chechnya—Part 2 of 2
By Tom Proebsting
Special to HNN
Moberly, MO (HNN) -- Russia and Chechnya have been at war intermittently for
500 years. In part one of this two part series, I described the clashing of
the two nations over the centuries, culminating in two savage wars which
started in the 1990’s.
Chechnya is an autonomous republic in the Caucasus region that borders the
Caucasus mountains and the Caspian Sea in southern Russia. Its region is
rich in oil, is a trans-shipment point for oil from Russia and points east,
and is a natural geographic boundary for Russia with its tall mountains.
After the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, Chechnya declared its
independence. Russia and Chechnya fought two wars over the issue as a lot
was at stake. Russia ascribed to the domino theory that if Chechnya was
allowed to leave, its other 80 republics and principalities would leave
also. Chechnya was made an example to the rest of Russia.
One of the major leaders of the Chechen resistance movement was Shamil
Basayev who was responsible for ten years of terrorist atrocities directed
against Russian forces and civilians. He was best known for the
hostage-taking siege at Beslan School in 2004 in which 344 civilians were
killed, 186 of which were school children. Barbarities were committed by
both the Russians and the Chechen resistance fighters during the two wars.
Shamil Basayev was killed recently in a bomb attack. The resistance
fighters’ strong and charismatic leader is gone. It appears there is no one
on the horizon to replace him. What is next for Chechnya and its resistance
movement?
There are two schools of thought on the future of Chechnya. The first is
that the resistance will go on, experiencing its ups and downs, and making
life generally miserable for the citizens of Chechnya and Russia. But there
is a second idea and for more details I contacted a specialist on the
subject.
I talked with Yuri Mamchur, a senior foreign policy fellow at the Discovery
Institute. His specialty is Russian affairs, he is a PhD candidate and
graduate of the Russian Tax Academy School of Law in Moscow, and he is the
creator of RussiaBlog. He knows a lot of people in Russia and specifically,
Chechens, who are close to the situation there.
First, Mr. Mamchur says Basayev’s death will “mellow it (the resistance
movement) down.” His death is another step in the stabilization of the
region. The resistance movement is winding down. “Everybody is very tired of
it,” he states.
There were thousands of resistance fighters throughout the 1990’s and the
early millennium. Mr. Mamchur says “over five thousand fighters gave up
their weapons in the last two years” and turned to the peaceful life, a life
of family, work, and religion. Today there are less than one thousand
fighters in the region, he says.
There will be no replacement for Shamil Basayev, he tells me. Instead, the
citizens are likely to follow their new Chechen Prime Minister Ramzam
Kadyrov, a former terrorist himself. His father, Akhmous Kadyrov, was the
president of Chechnya when he was assassinated by Basayev.
Mr. Ramzam Kadyrov fought in the first Chechen war and is very opposed to
the anti-Russian resistance. He has a whopping 85% approval rating in
Chechnya today and full approval of the Kremlin according to Mr. Mamchur. In
their latest agreement, Russia is giving autonomy to Chechen production and
culture.
As for the remaining resistance fighters, there are two types. Mr. Mamchur
said the first type is Chechens, males aged eighteen and older. The second
is foreign fighters, primarily from Iraq, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and
Afghanistan. Today there are very few Chechens in the resistance movement;
it is comprised mostly of foreigners now. Most of the resistance fighters
have laid down their arms. The Kremlin and the Chechen government have
agreed on common grounds. And unbelievably, there have been no human rights
abuses in the past six months.
Economically, there has been a lot of recent progress in Chechnya. Three
thousand new businesses have opened up in the last year. The Chechen
government will direct one of its agencies to train Chechens in the
construction business for future projects, along with the increased
availability of agricultural work. Also, financing for restoration projects
in Chechnya have been coordinated by both governments.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has recently worked to ease the difficulty
of obtaining foreign passports in Chechnya. Members of remaining resistance
fighters have been invited for peace talks with the Chechen authorities.
Security forces are on the increase: 23,000 men in the army; 17,000 in the
police force; and 23,000 in the internal troops of the Interior Ministry.
Mr. Mamchur says the Chechen Prime Minister Ramzam Kadyrov seeks for
Chechnya to become “the most prosperous place on earth two years from now.”
To accomplish this, he is directing the construction of the largest mosque
in the world to be placed in downtown Grozny, Chechnya’s capital city. Next
to the Mosque a $54 million Presidential Palace will be built along with a
Five-Star resort. And to think, a few years ago, Grozny was just a pile of
bricks.
Mr. Mamchur states that Chechnya’s new economy will be fueled by two
industries: oil and tourism. Oil production and oil pipelines promise to be
booming industries. Tourism is expected to be right behind oil as the
Caucasus region boasts the only mountains – aside from the Urals -- in
Russia. The Russian people love mountains.
Between the two possibilities for Chechnya’s future are: one, a continuing
resistance movement, and two, peace and prosperity in the region. Neither
will be easy to face, but the odds are in favor of peace and prosperity
remaining in the Caucasus.
* * *
Tom Proebsting is a writer and blogger in Missouri. Tom Proebsting, 823 N.
Ault St. Moberly, MO 65270
e-mail: truthprobe777@yahoo.com
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