RUTHERFORD ON FILM: Picking The Hollywood Hits: Will ‘We Are Marshall’ Thunder at Box Office? Part 3 of 3
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By Tony RutherfordHuntington News Network Writer
Huntington, WV (HNN) -- Previously, this series has explained how economists and Hollywood studio executives clash over the factors that determine the success or failure of a motion picture release in theatres. The scientific professions prefer to ascribe hit or miss attributes to uncontrollable factors such as randomness ( rolling dice or flipping a coin) versus the ability to put together a creative and business model that equals tentpole!
Warner Bros. has tinkered at least three times with the "We Are Marshall" release date. The initial word was Nov. 10, then Dec. 8 , and now Oct. 27. Each of the changes have advantages and disadvantages but suggest, to me anyway, a studio anticipating a picture that has such feel good and inspirational qualities that it will have 'legs' i.e. open to a large audience that drops slowly over the film's run.
Instead of a 60-70% drop from a comic book styled release, the studio could be anticipating favorable word of mouth and repeat business nationwide. In fact, the date placement appears to give the film a chance to gain supporters for its niche, including the potential for award nominations from the cast and film makers.
Of the 'unknown' till it's on the screen factors, "We Are Marshall" has Hollywood Hunk Matthew McConaughey, a veteran of romantic, fluffy comedies, cast in a serious role, and McG, who built his reputation on action pics like "Charlie's Angels," directing a more dramatic production. Interestingly, though, the choice of McG does not totally go against the grain --- the picture has long football playing segments which blend well with McG's action persona.
Prior to casting Matthew McConaughey, McG told him he wanted the best performance of his career for the portrayal of Jack Lengyl. The dedication to dramatic intensity lends more credence with the addition of David Strathairn and Ian McShane in pivotal power supporting roles.
As the contenders approach their positions, "We Are Marshall" has a second hunk, Matthew Fox, whose nucleus of fans cross age demographics guaranteed to draw a second age demographic than McConaughey. What will “We Are Marshall” compete against? Tentative releases for Oct 27, includes the third sequel in the blood spurting "Saw" series, a period picture, "The Prestige," with Christian Bale directed by Christopher (“Batman Begins”) Nolan, and, a terrorist actioneer ("Catch a Fire") with directed by Phillip (Brokeback Mountain, Constant Gardener ) so the target audience is not split that weekend with multiple ploys for the same demographics as "Marshall" has the position to draw moviegoers who like sports, drama, and the 'chic' film audience that will rush to see the two Matthews.
More significantly, from my observation, is the scheduling of films the week's following "We Are Marshall's" debut.
Current schedules have the next James Bond "Casino Royale" set for November 17 and "Bobby" (a bio pic of Robert Kennedy's assassination) on Nov. 24, which is where the dramas start coming out of the gate like gangbusters. (Incidentally, the next sports oriented flick is Dec. 22 when "Pride" tells how a group of Philly troubled teens assemble one of the best swim teams in the country.
“Marshall's” original Dec. 8 penciled in date see a high profile Warner Bros release--- “Unaccompanied Minors,” a big screen treatment of a true life story from NPR's "This American Life" in which a group of kids create their own makeshift holiday while snowed in at Chicago's O'Hare International Airport. (IMDB BUZZ: "this is the one to watch...")
Although blockbusters take off at the gate, other films have 'legs,' meaning they start moderate and build. While the blockbuster drops 60% after the first weekend, a pic with favorable word of mouth has a much smaller drop (30-40%) or even an increase.
As for the timing, “We Are …” is targeted around football season (a plus) and allows a few weeks before the holiday schedule so possible awards recognition can be discovered. Would November have been better for the Marshall movie? Depends on what other dramas are on the chart AND how many other Warner Bros offerings. Although not necessarily true in the larger towns, small to medium sized cinemas distribution politics often 'requires' them to unofficially devote one screen to each film company. So, if WB has two or three pics in a short time, they come and go faster.
During the Christmas rush (the busiest time next to summer), films are expected to either recoup their investment in a fast time frame or are receiving limited releases to qualify for award consideration. And, again, what other studios have on their schedule whittles demographics i.e. three or four family flicks in two weeks means that one might skyrocket, another click marginally, but two likely will be in and out of the cinema in two weeks (or cut back to matinee only time frames).
Incidentally, using that screen for each studio rule of thumb, the Thanksgiving releases are often bumped by the same studio’s Christmas releases. So, you tell me, is late October a good release time frame? Warners now has FOUR Christmas films on the December slate, but only two in November --- Hilary Swank’s horror themed “The Reaping” (Nov. 8) and the animated “Happy Feet” on Nov. 17.
So, will WE ARE MARSHALL thunder? As Leonard Miodinow's article in the Los Angeles Times said, "why are smart Hollywood people blind to the randomness that rules their industry? We find comfort in having control. And then there are our egos. We like to believe in our power."
The answer to the beloved film’s ‘scientific’ chances seem to rest on a coin flip or your own analysis, which based on the Times article is no better or worse than mine or Hollywood executives. But, WE ARE prejudiced, now are we not?
(Editor’s Note: The writer has over 20 years of film criticism experience and has worked as a regional correspondent for the Hollywood trade publication, Boxoffice.)